Key takeaways from today’s annual analysts presentation:
Following fiscal Q1 2017 (01/07/16-30/09/16) trading update of 11.5% y-o-y top-line growth reflecting a 5% L-F-L domestic sales increase, post September 15, Jumbo is experiencing a negative sales growth, momentum in Greece owing to demand slowdown (potentially linked to heavy real-estate tax payments hitting disposable income),
Jumbo plans to shut down 2-3 underperforming greater-Athens outlets, while opening new ones in rural Greece (ie Aigina and Mytilini islands),
Identified Croatia and Slovakia as potential new markets for further expansion abroad,
Commitment of c33% dividend payout ratio,
Around EUR50m capex per annum over the next three years, of which 60% relates to new store rollouts in Romania,
In Greece, sales via a credit-card sale rose 50% in fiscal 2016 vs 7% before capital controls, against 90% in Romania and 50% in Bulgaria.
Fiscal 2017e guidance
Jumbo guides for 4-7% y-o-y fiscal 2017e group top-line growth (to EUR663.1/682.2m) and flattish net earnings (overly cautious stance as usual, we believe)
We expect fiscal 2017 group sales, EBITDA and net earnings to grow 7%, 3% and 5% y-o-y to EUR681.3m, EUR189.9m and EUR127.6m, respectively. Adjusting for last year’s EUR2.2m positive m-t-m bond valuation, we see group net earnings 7% higher y-o-y in fiscal 2017e.