S&P 500 Real Estate index has rallied back up to key resistance at 203/205 record highs, which is capping for now. Extension above here is needed to resolve the range from 2014 to the upside, and open up further strength to 221 then trendline resistance at 233.
■ Euro Stoxx 50 (September)’s focus turns onto the 38.2% retracement of the recent sell-off at 2803.
■ FTSE 100 (September)’s spotlight turns to gap resistance at 6217/21, above which is needed to see a retest of a tougher barrier from price and trendline resistance at 6334/58.
■ S&P 500 (September)’s rebound is seen as corrective and we stay bearish for 1970/62, then 1940.
■ Russell 2000 is currently holding key support at the May low at 1086. However, we stay bearish for an eventual break below here to test 1067 at first, ahead of 1055.
■ Nikkei 225 has corrected higher, turning the attention topside for 15720/70 at first, followed by 15980.
■ Shanghai Composite needs to take out the June high at 2946 in order to set a base for a better recovery towards 3004
S&P 500 September Contract
The S&P 500 staged a snap back bounce yesterday back above the 200-day average at 2016.
In light of the recent sharp decline the rebound is viewed as corrective and we ideally look for selling to show at the 38.2% retracement of the recent fall at 2034 and the 2050/52 level to continue to cap to keep the risks still bearish.
Removal of support at 1989 is needed to retest last week’s low at 1982. Follow through below here can see further weakness to the 50% retracement level and price support at 1970/62.
Although we would expect this to hold at first, strength will stay seen as corrective ahead of a move to the “neckline” to the base from February at 1940.
Above 2052 is needed to open up a stronger recovery to 1957/63 and then 2067. The VIX below 19.48 allows a move down to 16.59, which we look to hold and turn price action higher again. Short, stop above 2035.
Take profit at 1940. Above 2035 should see strength extend back to 2050/60. Retry a short here, stop above 2076.
SHORT TGT @ 1940 S/L @ 2077