EXAE: Q1 2015 group results preview by Beta Securities

15.05.2015 17:49


Hellenic Exchanges (OW, TP EUR7.3)

Q1 2015 group results preview

Hellenic Exchanges (HELEX) will release its Q1 2015 group results on May 18, post market close, and host a conference call the following day at 16:00 AST (Athens), 14:00 BST (London), 09:00 EDT (New York).

Conference Call: GR 00800 4413 1378, UK 00800 953 0329, US +1 866 819 7111, Other participants +44 1452 542 301.


Key points:

  • We see Q1 group sales down 2% y-o-y to EUR10.1m, as the lack of capital raising income and a sharp drop in listed companies quarterly subscriptions (linked to lower market caps) should more than offset higher equity trading revenue and upbeat derivatives business
  • On our forecasts, cash market revenue (trading/clearing) should grow 8% y-o-y to EUR4.6m, driven by a rise of 8% in ASE average daily turnover (ADT) to EUR116m vs EUR107m a year ago
  • In similar vein, we expect derivatives to jump 48% y-o-y to EUR1.3m vs EUR0.9m a year ago (albeit from a low base)
  • On the flip side, we look for depository and exchange services (quarterly subscriptions, rights issues fees) declines of 22% and 49% y-o-y to EUR0.9m and EUR0.8m. respectively
  • Q1 market data, settlements and IT services revenue should remain stable at EUR0.9m, EUR0.3m and EUR0.3m, respectively
  • As such, we see core equity transaction revenue contribution rising to 45% of total (from 41% in Q1 2014), reflecting somewhat stronger ASE volumes (on favourable y-o-y base effects)
  • In turn, derivatives, depository, market data, exchange services, settlement and IT revenues should make up 13%, 9%, 9%, 8%, 3% and 2%,respectively, of total in Q1, we forecast
Hellenic Exchanges Q1 2015e group results

(March 31, EURm) Q1-14a Q1-15e Q1 y-o-y
ASE avg daily trading (cash market) 107.5 116.2 8%
Revenue 10.3(3.9) 10.1(4.0) -2%1%
Total Operating Costs
% of revenue 38% 39%
EBITDA 6.0 5.7 -5%
EBITDA Margin 57.7% 56.1%
EBT 6.6 6.0 -9%
EBT Margin 63.6% 59.0%
Net Profit 4.8 4.3 -9%
Net Margin 46.4% 43.0%  

Source: Hellenic Exchanges, BETA Securities estimates


HELEX: Q1 2015e revenue breakdown (%)
Source: Hellenic Exchanges, BETA Securities estimates


  • We estimate group opex up 1% y-o-y to EUR4m, triggered by 1% increase in staff costs to EUR2.4m. That said, ex-personnel expenses Q1 2015e group opex are seen 7% y-o-y higher to EUR1.7m
  • As a result, we look for drops of 5% y-o-y both in group EBITDA and EBIT to EUR5.7m and EUR5.2m, respectively
  • Going further down the P&L, we expect EBT to fall 9% y-o-y to EUR6m, aided by EUR0.8m net financials (compared  with EUR1.1m in 1Q14a)
  • Finally, we forecast Q1 2015e net earnings down 9% y-o-y to EUR4.3m (assuming 27,2% effective tax rate) from EUR4.8m over the same period last year.



We value HELEX using a 2-stage DFC model with explicit forecast to 2018. In specific, we use perpetuity growth rate of 2%, COE of 11% and sector asset beta of 1 (all unchanged vs before).

Our DCF model continues to return a TP of EUR7.3 per share, suggesting a 28% potential upside of, which is above the Neutral band. Hence, we maintain Overweight rating on HELEX.


Kind regards

Spiros Tsangalakis

Senior Equity Analyst

BETA Securities S.A.

29 Alexandras Ave.

GR – 11473

Athens, Greece


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