EXAE: Q1 2015 group results preview by Beta Securities
Hellenic Exchanges (OW, TP EUR7.3)
Q1 2015 group results preview
Hellenic Exchanges (HELEX) will release its Q1 2015 group results on May 18, post market close, and host a conference call the following day at 16:00 AST (Athens), 14:00 BST (London), 09:00 EDT (New York).
Conference Call: GR 00800 4413 1378, UK 00800 953 0329, US +1 866 819 7111, Other participants +44 1452 542 301.
We see Q1 group sales down 2% y-o-y to EUR10.1m, as the lack of capital raising income and a sharp drop in listed companies quarterly subscriptions (linked to lower market caps) should more than offset higher equity trading revenue and upbeat derivatives business
On our forecasts, cash market revenue (trading/clearing) should grow 8% y-o-y to EUR4.6m, driven by a rise of 8% in ASE average daily turnover (ADT) to EUR116m vs EUR107m a year ago
In similar vein, we expect derivatives to jump 48% y-o-y to EUR1.3m vs EUR0.9m a year ago (albeit from a low base)
On the flip side, we look for depository and exchange services (quarterly subscriptions, rights issues fees) declines of 22% and 49% y-o-y to EUR0.9m and EUR0.8m. respectively
Q1 market data, settlements and IT services revenue should remain stable at EUR0.9m, EUR0.3m and EUR0.3m, respectively
As such, we see core equity transaction revenue contribution rising to 45% of total (from 41% in Q1 2014), reflecting somewhat stronger ASE volumes (on favourable y-o-y base effects)
In turn, derivatives, depository, market data, exchange services, settlement and IT revenues should make up 13%, 9%, 9%, 8%, 3% and 2%,respectively, of total in Q1, we forecast