Jumbo-BETA SEc.: We see fiscal Q2 2015e (to Dec 31) group net profit +6% y-o-y to EUR43m

25.02.2015 18:04

Jumbo (BABr.AT, Overweight, TP EUR11.0)


H1/Q2 2015e results preview

We see fiscal Q2 2015e (to Dec 31) group net profit +6% y-o-y to EUR43m

Jumbo will publish its H1/Q2 2015 (01/07/14-31/12/14) group results on February 26 post market close.

 

Key points

  • On January 8, Jumbo pre-announced its H1 2015 (01/07/14-31/12/14) group sales figure; rising 8% y-o-y to EUR341m from EUR317m a year earlier
  • H1 group EBITDA, EBT and net earnings should reach EUR91m, EUR81m and EUR63m, all up 7% y-o-y, on our estimates, amid challenging domestic market conditions
  • In Q2 2015 terms, we see group sales growing by a lesser 5% y-o-y to EUR196m, on the back of a sales slowdown in December attributed to (a) consumer sentiment deterioration linked to heightened political uncertainty (Greek presidential/snap general elections), reflecting also (b) bad weather conditions during the crucial Christmas period (accounts for 28% of annual sales)
  • As such, we expect Q2 Greece sales down 2% y-o-y to EUR140m as L-F-L same store growth turned negative (-2.6% y-o-y vs +3.5% in Q1 2015)
  • International sales, in contrast, should jump 31% to EUR55m, making up 28% of total against 23% a year earlier, driven by organic growth (3 new store rollouts in Q2) and stronger brand awareness (Bulgaria, Cyprus)
  • More specifically, we forecast Cyprus and Bulgaria rising 28% and 14% y-o-y to EUR29m and EUR18m, respectively, with Romania more than doubling at EUR9m
  • We see Q2 group EBITDA posting an increase of 5% y-o-y to EUR61m adversely affected by gross margin erosion of 44bps to 53.1%, still resilient (continuous product re-engineering, power over suppliers) despite USD aggressive gains over the euro (Jumbo acquires 71% of its goods from China/Asia in USD currency)
  • Further down, we expect group EBT advancing 6% y-o-y to EUR56m compared with EUR53m over the same period a year ago
  • Finally, we look for Q2 net earnings growth of 6% y-o-y to EUR43m (assuming 22.2% effective tax rate)
  • Jumbo runs a total of 70 stores (end-2014) in 4 countries, 53 of which in Greece, 5 in Cyprus, 8 in Bulgaria and 4 in Romania, as well as the on line store e-Jumbo
  • Four new stores opened during H1 2015: 1 in Greece (Iasmos, August 2014, Jumbo fiscal Q1 2015), 2 in Romania (Bucharest, October and Oradea, November 2014) and 1 in Cyprus (Limassol, November 2014).

 

Valuation:

  • P/E (x) : 2015e 13.0x, 2016e 11.7x
  • EV/EBITDA (x): 2015e 8.2x, 2016e 7.2x
  • 2014a-17e EPS CAGR of 10%
  • Net cash: 2015e EUR144m

 

Kind regards,

Spiros Tsangalakis

Senior Equity Analyst

BETA Securities S.A.

29 Alexandras Ave.

GR – 11473

Athens, Greece

Email: [email protected]





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