Jumbo (Q2/6M Results 2014/15) will publish its H1/Q2 2015 group results post market close

26.02.2015 10:01

Key points

¡  On January 8, Jumbo pre-announced its H1 2015 (01/07/14-31/12/14) group sales figure; rising 8% y-o-y to EUR341m from EUR317m a year earlier
¡  H1 group EBITDA, EBT and net earnings should reach EUR91m, EUR81m and EUR63m, all up 7% y-o-y, on our estimates, amid challenging domestic market conditions
¡  In Q2 2015 terms, we see group sales growing by a lesser 5% y-o-y to EUR196m, on the back of a sales slowdown in December attributed to (a) consumer sentiment deterioration linked to heightened political uncertainty (Greek presidential/snap general elections), reflecting also (b) bad weather conditions during the crucial Christmas period (accounts for 28% of annual sales)
¡  As such, we expect Q2 Greece sales down 2% y-o-y to EUR140m as L-F-L same store growth turned negative (-2.6% y-o-y vs +3.5% in Q1 2015)
¡  International sales, in contrast, should jump 31% to EUR55m, making up 28% of total against 23% a year earlier, driven by organic growth (3 new store rollouts in Q2) and stronger brand awareness (Bulgaria, Cyprus)
¡  More specifically, we forecast Cyprus and Bulgaria rising 28% and 14% y-o-y to EUR29m and EUR18m, respectively, with Romania more than doubling at EUR9m
¡  We see Q2 group EBITDA posting an increase of 5% y-o-y to EUR61m adversely affected by gross margin erosion of 44bps to 53.1%, still resilient (continuous product re-engineering, power over suppliers) despite USD aggressive gains over the euro (Jumbo acquires 71% of its goods from China/Asia in USD currency)
¡  Further down, we expect group EBT advancing 6% y-o-y to EUR56m compared with EUR53m over the same period a year ago
¡  Finally, we look for Q2 net earnings growth of 6% y-o-y to EUR43m (assuming 22.2% effective tax rate)
¡  Four new stores opened during H1 2015: 1 in Greece (Iasmos, August 2014, Jumbo fiscal Q1 2015), 2 in Romania (Bucharest, October and Oradea, November 2014) and 1 in Cyprus (Limassol, November 2014).
JUMBO
(6Μ 2014)
2013
2014
Y-o-Y
2013
2014
Y-o-Y
EUR thous.
12M
12M
(%)
4Q
4Q
(%)
Sales
316.740
341.000
7,7% 
185.551 
195.489 
5,4% 
EBITDA
84.634
91.000
7,5% 
57.776 
61.014 
5,6% 
EBITDA Mrg
26,7% 
26,7% 
-3 bps 
31,1% 
31,2% 
+7 bps 
Net Income
58.969
63.000
6,8% 
40.905 
42.991 
5,1% 
Net Mrg
18,6% 
18,5% 
-14 bps 
22,0% 
22,0% 
-5 bps 
*Τα όσα αναγράφονται στη στήλη είναι προιόν δημοσιογραφικής έρευνας και δεν αποτελούν προτροπή αγοράς, πώλησης ή διακράτησης μετοχών



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