Sarantis (Q4/FY 2014 Results): The company will publish its FY/Q4 2014e group results on March 18, 2015, post market hours, and host a conference call the following day at 17:00 AST (Athens), 15:00 BST (London), 10:00 EST (New York).
¡ We look for FY 2014 group sales, EBITDA and EBIT of EUR251m (+6% y-o-y), EUR24.8m (+7%) and EUR21.1m (+9%), respectively.
¡ Adjusting for EUR7.2m capital losses associated with Sarantis stake sale in Folli Follie Group (booked in 1Q13) and EUR0.75m one-off deferred taxation linked to ASTRID acquisition (2Q14), we expect net earnings to rise 11% y-o-y to EUR17.2m from EUR15.5m a year earlier. At a reported level, we forecast group net earnings 2x up to EUR16.5m vs EUR8.3m in 2013.
¡ Q4 2014 group sales should advance 7% y-o-y to EUR69m, reflecting market share gains in Greece, as well as higher penetration rates in CE Europe.
¡ Despite sudden consumer sentiment deterioration in December linked to elevated political risk (Greek presidential elections), we see domestic sales up by c3% y-o-y to EUR20m, against +5% y-o-y growth in 9M14. On our estimates, Q4 international operations should increase 9% y-o-y to EUR50m, making up 72% of total sales (65% in FY 2014). At constant FX-rates, we expect overseas sales to advance 10% y-o-y.
¡ In greater detail, we estimate Poland and Romania sales up 8% and 10% y-o-y to EUR23m and EUR11m, respectively, contributing 33% and 15% of group total in Q4 2014.
¡ The group gross margin is seen edging up 12bps to 49.1%, on the back of positive product mix effects.
¡ In turn, we expect group EBITDA to post an increase of 23% y-o-y to EUR9.4m, as S&A expenses fell to 39.6% of sales vs 41.9% in 4Q13.
¡ Moving further down the P&L, we estimate Q4 group EBIT up 25% y-o-y to EUR8.4m compared with EUR6.7m a year ago. Thanks to a significant Q4 sequential margin enhancement (8.2% vs 5.8% in 4Q13), international operations EBIT should jump 53% y-o-y to EUR4.1m (albeit from a low base).
¡ Meanwhile, we estimate Greece EBIT to grow by 6% y-o-y to EUR4.3m, adversely affected by a 12% y-o-y income drop from Estee Lauder (mostly due to tough y-o-y comparisons).
¡ In a similar fashion, group EBT is seen up 34% y-o-y to EUR8.2m in Q4, on the back of EUR0.2m net financial expenses (reflecting negative mark-to-market portfolio valuation).
¡ Lastly, we expect a hefty Q4 2014 net earnings rise, up 41% y-o-y to EUR6.6m against EUR4.7m a year ago.
¡ End-2014 net cash should fall to EUR10m vs EUR22m in 2013, burdened by ASTRID (EUR6.5m) and NOXZEMA (EUR8.7m) acquisitions, but also from cEUR10m interim dividend (Jan 2014).
Conference Call (Thu. 19 Mar. 17:00 GR Time):
¡ FR +33 (0) 170 918 711
¡ DE +49 (0) 69 2222 4493
|EBITDA Mrg||9,7%||9,8%||+10 bps||11,8%||13,6%||+180 bps|
|Net Mrg||3,5%||6,5%||+303 bps||7,3%||9,6%||+230 bps|